On A Bold Strategic Move by Russia

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If the opposition disarms, well and good. If it refuses to disarm, we shall disarm it ourselves. – Stalin

Let’s get something factual before we begin.  Georgia (as in the Republic of Georgia) poked a bear (Russia) and the bear didn’t just swat at Georgia, it went after it full force.  Full invasion is smart and strategically important for Russia, and a attacking the breakaway region was just a stupid thing to do for Georgia

In a purely military (and strategic ) outlook there is really no downside for Russia.  It gets to swat a burr in its side.  Scantions can’t be passed against it (it’s a Security council permanent member.) and NATO, America, or anyone else isn’t really going to go to war with Russia.  Furthermore, we can’t get our allies from trading with Terrorist countries, they are not going to stop trading with Russia.

In Friedman’s “The Lexus and the Olive Tree.” He suggests the market eventually punishes countries that don’t fall in line, but the Market does not punish, even cannot punish, a Level 1 country. Worse, Russia doesn’t care. It’s canceled payments of it’s debt, sits on a surplus of oil in an increasingly oil demanding country and has a grade A military.

The Soviet Union failed in the Cold War because it ran out of money.  It now has lots of money, the potential to gain more money and it’s not illegal for American companies to do business there, or European countries.  The world [countries] would be hard pressed to suddenly go back to the War Divisions, scantions and Trade Embargoes, just because a small nation after a picked a fight it couldn’t win.

We shall speak later about how to stop the Russian war machine, but it’s foolish to deny it’s not a strategicly sound move on Russia’s move to crush Georgia or leave it militarily incapable. There is no Sympathy for Georgia from this page, just sympathy for all the people dying for the Presidents [ of Georgia] inept political maneuvering of the war machine.

OceansOfThought @ August 11, 2008