On Radical Islam and the Green Movement

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With the fearful strain that is on me night and day, if I did not laugh I should die. – Abraham Lincoln

In one of those laws of unintended consequences(a simple system cannot effectively control or predict a complex system), the green movement will pretty much define and complicate our interaction with the Middle East, specifically Oil Producing Nations.

The green movement is becoming a powerful force, and with the continued rise of oil in price more and more need for cleaner fuel spreads around the globe. Most oil production middle-east nations or in Africa do nothing else except export oil.

It is a sad state of affairs that most of those dirt rich, middle eastern countries are filled with poor people. With the exception of Dubai (who has turned their desert into an oasis and has reduced oil to about 30% of GDP ) and Kuwait, (who share their vast majority of their wealth with their people), most people in these countries are poverty stricken. Their rules live opulently. Right now, they think most western nations are exploiting them and not giving them anything, or treating them with respect. What are they going to think when we don’t need their oil?

Plastics from oil are easy, but not the only way to make plastics. You can make it from chemicals or Sugar. All you need is a carbon string for polymers. While the middle east could turn to plastic production it’s not nearly as profitable as oil by the millions of barrel. America , China, Russia, Venezuela have their own Oil or other sources and can therefore make plastics themselves.

Now, oil could drop back to $20 a gallon and the green movement could die a swift death (as as happened before) but still, the world is running out of oil (proven by mathematics and common sense). If one gallon of gas can take us 100 miles, gas will become $200 a gallon because that’s what OPEC (*a cartel ignoring market prices) will make it, and they need to keep up their lifestyles. Governments after all are self sustaining and self preserving.

Mostly thou the people won’t feel the amazing drop in income. They are already poor, but the governments will feel the belt tightening. It may take them several generations to run out of money, but really, all they have is sand, and lots of it. How angry will they be then, with factories polluting their air and their land? Will that too be our fault as technology moves beyond them? I can see it now. first radicals are angry we wont leave them alone (present) and then these same radicals will be angry we only ignore them (further).

It seems, no matter what we do, we’re going to be facing some angry desperate people in the future. That is a sad, unfortunate thing. It’s not easy being green.

OceansOfThought @ April 24, 2008